What Is Expected Value (+EV) In Sports Betting?

The sports betting industry grew exponentially over the past few years, going from a pastime to a sophisticated endeavor with millions of enthusiasts worldwide. To be successful in it, bettors must know a variety of concepts, among which the idea of Expected Value, commonly denoted as +EV, stands out as a fundamental principle. Understanding it not only helps in making informed betting decisions, but also enhances the overall betting experience. In this article, inplaySoft will explain what +EV is, its importance and common misconceptions.

What is Expected Value (EV)?

Expected Value (EV) is a statistical concept that measures the average outcome of a given bet, if it were placed numerous times. It provides a way to determine whether a bet is worth placing by evaluating the potential risks and rewards. In sports betting, the expected value is calculated by multiplying the probability of winning by the amount won per bet, and then subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.

The formula can be summarized as follows:

EV = (PW×AW) − (PL×AL)

Where:

• PW  = Probability of winning
• AW = Amount won per bet
• PL = Probability of losing
• AL = Amount lost per bet

Positive Expected Value (+EV)

When the expected value of a bet is positive (+EV), it indicates that the potential winnings outweigh the risks involved. A +EV bet is one where a bettor can expect to gain more money in the long run compared to the amount wagered. An +EV of 20, for example, means that over time the bettor can expect to make a profit of $20 for every $100 wagered.

Calculating +EV in Sports Betting

To clarify the concept of +EV, let’s look at a practical example: a bettor is considering a wager on a football match where Team A is playing against Team B, and the bookmaker offers odds of +150 for Team A to win.

1. First, convert the odds into implied probability. The formula for converting American odds to implied probability is:

Implied Probability = 100/(100 + Odds)

For Team A’s odds of +150:

Implied Probability = 100/(100 + 150) = 100/250 = 40%

2. Next, let’s say the bettor believes that Team A has a 50% chance of winning the match, which is higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability. If the bettor wagers $100 on Team A:

• Potential winnings if Team A wins: $100 * (150/100) = $150
• Probability of winning: 50% or 0.50
• Probability of losing: 50% or 0.50
• Amount lost if Team A loses: $100

3. Finally, insert these values into the EV formula:
   EV = (0.50 × 150) − (0.50 × 100) =  75 − 50 = 25

In this scenario, therefore, the expected value is +$25, indicating a favorable bet. The bettor can expect to gain $25 for every $100 wagered in the long run, making this a +EV bet.

Importance of +EV

Understanding EV is important for several reasons, including:

• Long-Term Profitability: the primary goal of sports betting is to achieve long-term profitability. By focusing on +EV bets, bettors can maximize their returns over time. Even if individual bets may not always win, consistently placing +EV bets increases the likelihood of overall success.
• Gestión de fondos: understanding +EV also ties into effective bankroll management. Bettors can allocate their funds more effectively by identifying which bets are worth pursuing and which should be avoided.
• Identifying Value: +EV helps bettors recognize value in the betting market. Bookmakers often set odds based on public perception rather than true probabilities. Bettors who can identify discrepancies between their perceived probabilities and the bookmakers’ odds can find +EV opportunities.

Common Misconceptions

Some of the most common misconceptions about EV are:

• Not All Bets Need to Be +EV: some bettors believe that every bet they place must be +EV. While it’s true that focusing on +EV is crucial for long-term success, there are times when bettors may wish to place a bet for fun or personal reasons, even if it’s not a +EV situation.
• Short-Term Variance: bettors may experience short-term losses even when placing +EV bets. This variance does not negate the positive expected value of the bet. It’s essential to maintain a long-term perspective when evaluating the success of a betting strategy.
• Understanding Probability: it’s vital to differentiate between perceived probability and actual probability. Bettors should base their decisions on thorough research and analysis rather than gut feelings or biases.

Reflexiones finales

Expected Value (+EV) is a crucial concept in sports betting that all bettors should understand. By calculating and analyzing the EV of their bets, bettors can make informed decisions that enhance their chances of long-term profitability. While betting inherently involves risk, focusing on +EV opportunities allows bettors to navigate the betting landscape more effectively.

Incorporating +EV into a betting strategy not only improves decision-making, but also brings a sense of discipline and structure to the betting process. As sports betting continues to evolve, understanding and applying the principles of expected value will remain essential for anyone looking to succeed in this exciting and dynamic field.